Last month’s deceleration in food inflation, to 6.7% y/y, means that South Africa’s food prices are at the lowest levels in 18 months. This is a reflection of the benefits of higher agricultural output this year following good weather conditions across the country. We think that there is still room for further, but moderate deceleration in the next few months.
The general decline in food inflation is largely on the back of a broad recovery in agricultural production. Total summer grains and oilseeds production are estimated at 16.9 million tonnes, which is an 82% annual increase. This uptick in production is underpinning a bearish trend in agricultural commodity prices.
Data from Statistics South Africa shows that food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation fell to 6.7% year-on-year (y/y) in April 2017 from 8.7% y/y in March 2017 (see Chart 1 for product movements).
While we expect the overall food inflation to decelerate moderately over the coming months on the back of large maize and vegetable supplies, the influence of the downswing in maize prices could be negated by the potential upswing in wheat prices. However, the increases in wheat prices will not be as significant due to the fact that South African wheat prices typically trade along import parity.
From a meat perspective, the beef supply side seems to be normalising – which means that the price increase will not be as significant as initially expected. Farmers slaughtered 238 097 head of cattle in March 2017, which is an 18% increase from the previous month, but 6% lower than March 2016.
Despite the outbreaks of avian flu in EU and parts of the US, chicken imports have not decreased significantly as expected. Meanwhile, there are reports that local production is recovering due to lower feed costs which point to growing supplies – and essentially means chicken prices might not increase significantly either.
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Alldays Boerevereniging
Voorsitter:
HJ Smit – hjsmitvervoer@gmail.com
Cell: +27 (0) 72 3979679
Virtuele Boerevereniging
Voorsitter:
Frans Saaijman – hanlies@mweb.co.za
Cell: +27 (0) 82 3885084
Linton
Voorsitter:
Schalk – kongoms53@gmail.com
Cell: +27 (0) 83 367 6891
Loskop
Voorsitter:
Piet Engelbrecht – pieter@dpet.co.za
Cell: +27 (0) 82 8578924
Weipe
Voorsitter:
Ben Esterhuyse – benesterhuyse@gmail.com
Cell: +27 (0) 83 6917674
Watervalsrivier
Goeie dag boerevereniging lede.
Watervalsrivier boerevereniging dagbestuur het n nuwe voorsiter aangestel (Frans Winterbach) nadat ons vorige voorsiter (Lodewyk de Jager) uitgetree het.
Tuinplaas
Voorsitter:
Nets Turvey – nets.turvey@gmail.com
Cell: +27 (0) 82 4448404
Springbokvlakte
Voorsitter:
Andries Groothof – andries@adaja.co.za
Cell: +27 (0) 82 453 4366
Ohrigstad
Voorsitter:
Fritz Marx – OhrigstadBV@vodamail.co.za
Cell: +27 (0) 82 9462333
Nzelele
Voorsitter:
Barend Vorster – xmasbdy@lantic.net
Cell: +27 (0) 82 651 2642
Groter Tzaneen
Voorsitter:
Lukas McLean – mwrtvlei@mweb.co.za
Cell: +27 (0) 83 6303236
Trichardtsdal
Voorsitter:
Theuns Kotzee – aalbdy@mweb.co.za
Cell : +27 (0) 83 2691747
Mooketsi
Voorsitter:
Phile van Zyl – phile@zz2.co.za
Cell : +27 (0) 83 6278528
Leydsdorp
Voorsitter:
Tertius Botha – tersbotha@gmail.com
Cell : +27 (0) 82 3720763
Letsitele Vallei
Voorsitter:
Butch Macdonald – tamarafm@mweb.co.za
Cell : +27 (0) 83 4578832
Letaba Vallei
Voorsitter:
Jokkie Richards – jola@tzaneen.co.za
Cell : +27 (0) 82 8295093
Groot Letaba Sentraal
Voorsitter:
B Vorster – gerhardt@laeveldsitrus.co.za
Cell : +27 (0) 83 4578824
Constantia
Voorsitter:
Carel Minnaar – carel@minnaar.co.za
Cell : +27 (0) 82 5510977
Agri Letaba DLU
Voorsitter:
Koraal
Voorsitter:
Willem van Jaarsveld – info@agrilimpopo.co.za
Cell : +27 (0) 82 4517913
Bosveld
Baie geluk aan Marthinus Erasmus. Hy is Agri Bosveld se nuwe voorsitter.
Die Beplannings vergadering het plaasgevind op 16 Januarie. Dankie vir elkeen se positiewe insette. Ons het ‘n goeie vergadering gehad en die aand heerlik gebraai. Dankie aan Henk van der Walt makelaars vir die heerlike vleis.
Dankie aan Willem en Ria wat ons weer besoek het en die middag saam ons gekuier het.
Bestuur:
Voorsitter: Marthinus Erasmus
O/ voorsitter: Cobus Coetzee
Finansies: Hendrik vd Walt
Sekretaresse: Gerna Coetzee
Navrae kan gerig word aan agribosveld@hotmail.com
Voorsitter:
Marthinus Erasmus – adenboerdery@lantic.net
Cell : +27 (0) 72 8327700